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Overcoming Challenges: Investment Opportunities in Hanoi’s Real Estate Market Amid Economic Turbulence

Posted by Khoi Pham on August 4, 2023

The real estate market in Hanoi and Vietnam more broadly, presents a captivating case of resilience, resourcefulness and undeterred growth potential, even in the face of economic headwinds [1]. This piece elucidates the unique investment opportunities present in Hanoi’s real estate market as of 2023 and how to navigate the prevailing economic turbulence.

Despite the slowdown in the real estate market brought about by factors such as credit tightening, challenges in issuing corporate bonds and cautious customer sentiment following the ongoing revision of the Land Law in 2013, the fundamentals of Hanoi’s real estate market remain solid [2]. It is noteworthy that the supply of apartments in Hanoi in the first half of 2023 was limited, with most of the supply comprising high-end properties [2].

A slowdown in the property market does not always imply a downturn in investment opportunities. The residential market, for instance, experienced a slump in supply, with high-end segment launches exceeding other segments in 2022, signifying a shift in market trends [3]. On the brighter side, the number of sold units in 2022 maintained a relatively positive level, exceeding new launches, suggesting a dynamic and profitable resale market [3].

Moreover, Hanoi’s economic growth has helped it weather some of the challenges and continues to attract foreign investors, particularly from countries such as Singapore, China, South Korea, Japan, and Hong Kong [4]. Hanoi, alongside Ho Chi Minh City, is among the top 10 most attractive destinations for cross-border investment [4].

This bullish sentiment can be attributed to Vietnam’s open economic policy, integration into global supply chains and a resilient supply chain that increases the attractiveness of real estate to foreign investors [4]. Even amidst the global pandemic, Vietnam’s GDP grew by an impressive 8.83 percent year-on-year in the first nine months of 2022 [4].

However, the industrial park real estate industry has also seen changes, with slowing demand in the South and increasing supply in the North [5]. Investors should, therefore, consider geographical variations in demand and supply when planning investments in this sector.

In conclusion, Hanoi’s real estate market, amidst economic turbulence, offers numerous opportunities for discerning investors. A well-rounded understanding of market dynamics, trends and the socio-economic landscape of Vietnam is key to capitalizing on these opportunities and achieving a successful investment portfolio in Hanoi’s real estate market.

Based on the information provided, several potential trajectories for the COVID-19 pandemic into 2023 have been suggested. The future trajectory depends on various factors such as the emergence of new variants, vaccine uptake and effectiveness, waning levels of past immunity and the application of interventions [6][7].

Given these factors, one study constructed a susceptible-exposed-infectious dynamic model to predict possible COVID-19 outcomes. This model considers elements such as the emergence of new variants, waning immunity from infection and vaccines, vaccine uptake and efficacy and the administration of antivirals [6][7].

In terms of long-term symptoms, three main trajectories have been identified: high persistent symptoms (4% of patients), rapidly decreasing symptoms (5% of patients), and slowly decreasing symptoms (91% of patients) [8]. This indicates that the vast majority of people with post-COVID-19 conditions improve over time, although the speed and extent of improvement can vary.

Predictions for the end of the pandemic are to be treated with caution, especially considering the efficacy of vaccines against predominant variants such as Omicron. For instance, while a fourth dose of mRNA vaccines (BT162b2 or mRNA-1273) has low and short-lived efficacy in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection, it is highly effective against severe symptomatic infection, hospitalization and death. Further, the introduction of new vaccines, especially those active against the Omicron variants, might also shape the trajectory of the pandemic [9].

Regular updates to the antigen composition of vaccines are recommended by WHO’s Technical Advisory Group on COVID-19 Vaccine Composition (TAG-CO-VAC). Adjustments based on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and the vaccine-derived immunity will be critical in responding to the changing nature of the virus [10].

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) provides various scenarios for COVID-19 progression over the next decade. These scenarios account for key variables such as growth rate, disease severity and immune protection from severe outcomes. Extreme vigilance is required in the event of more severe or transmissible variants of SARS-CoV-2 emerging [11].

Several regions, including Europe and North America, are on their way to endemic COVID-19. The burden of severe disease remains relatively low in these regions due to the lower average severity of Omicron subvariants and high levels of partial immunity. Countries that initially focused on controlling viral spread are now transitioning to managing endemic disease, recording higher case counts but few deaths [12].

In conclusion, based on current events, the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic into 2023 is likely to be influenced by the emergence of new variants, vaccine efficacy, waning immunity and implementation of public health interventions. The transition towards endemic COVID-19 seems to be an ongoing process in many parts of the world, which would involve a shift in focus from controlling viral spread to managing the disease. Furthermore, the evolution of post-COVID-19 conditions and the introduction of new vaccines will likely also affect the pandemic’s trajectory.

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