How is Q1/2022 of Vietnam?
What has Vietnam’s economy achieved in the first 3 months of 2022 in pursuit of major development goals?
GDP growth exceeded 5% and increased gradually over the quarters, showing that the economy is recovering and the efforts of the whole political system to promote economic development have been effective.
The above information was emphasized by Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong, General Director of the General Statistics Office (GSO) during the press conference to announce the report on socio-economic situation in the first quarter of 2022, which took place on March 29th. Accordingly, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2022 is estimated to increase by 5.03% over the same period last year, higher than the growth rate of 4.72% in the first quarter of 2021 and 3.66% in the first quarter of 2020.
The processing and manufacturing industry continues to be the driving force
In the industry and construction sector, the industry in the first quarter of 2022 increased by 7.07% over the same period last year, higher than the increase of 6.44% in the first quarter of 2021, contributing 2.42 percentage points to the growth rate of total value added of the whole economy.
The processing and manufacturing industry continued to play a leading role in the growth of the economy with an increase of 7.79%, contributing 2.05 percentage points. Mining industry grew positively by 1.23% (coal mining increased by 3.2% and metal ore increased by 5%), increasing by 0.04 percentage points in total added value of the whole economy. The construction industry grew by 2.57%, lower than the 6.53% growth rate of the first quarter of 2021, contributing 0.16 percentage points.
Optimistic with GDP growth target 2022
The service sector in the first quarter of 2022 prospered when many service activities are active again. Contributions of some market service industries with a large proportion to the increase in total value added in the first quarter of this year are as follows: Financial, banking and insurance activities increased by 9.75% over the same period last year in advance, contribute 0.54 percentage points; transportation and warehousing increased by 7.06%, contributing 0.43 percentage points; wholesale and retail increased by 2.98%, contributing 0.31 percentage points; accommodation and catering services decreased by 1.79%, down 0.04 percentage points.
Regarding the economic structure in the first quarter of 2022, the agriculture, forestry and marine products sector accounts for 10.94%; industry and construction accounted for 37.97%; service sector accounted for 41.70%; product tax minus product subsidies accounted for 9.39% (corresponding structure of the same period in 2021 was 11.61%; 36.61%; 42.38%; 9.40%).
Regarding GDP use in the first quarter of 2022, final consumption increased by 4.28% over the same period last year; accumulated assets increased by 3.22%; exports of goods and services increased by 5.08%; imports of goods and services increased by 4.20%.
7 solutions to promote growth
Although GDP results in the first three months of the year were positive, it is still lower than the growth rate of 6.85% of the same period in 2019.
Given that the growth target of 6-6.5% is a big challenge in the context of the potentially risky international situation, GSO’s leaders proposed 7 key solutions to be implemented in the remaining months of the year.
Firstly, continue to effectively implement Resolution No. 128/NQ-CP on the provisional provision “Safely adapting, flexibly & effectively controlling the COVID-19 epidemic”; implementing synchronously, drastically and effectively the tasks in Resolution No. 11/NQ-CP on the program to support economic recovery and development in 2022-2023; especially to ensure 100% disbursement of the assigned public investment capital, creating a driving force to boost the economy.
Second, persistently maintain macroeconomic stability, control prices, markets, ensure supply, circulation of goods and major balances of the economy. Continuously update forecast scenarios on growth and inflation to proactively manage and respond to arising situations. Closely monitor the price movements of the most essential commodities, especially petroleum products, develop plans to regulate supply, limit sudden price increases in order to minimize the impact on inflation and people’s lives.
Third, promote domestic production towards self-reliance in domestic raw materials supply.
Fourth, strengthen the domestic market, promote sustainable export, remove barriers, create favorable conditions for domestic consumption and export of agricultural, forestry and marine products.
Fifth, urgently restore the tourism market, facilitate international and domestic passenger traffic and appropriately support tourism businesses associated with disease safety to welcome the upcoming tourist season.
Sixth, promote administrative reform, remove bottlenecks, barriers and obstacles hindering production and business activities. Actively and faster supporting digital transformation for Vietnamese businesses in all fields, building a practical and effective digital economy and digital society, creating maximum favorable conditions for businesses.
Seventh, closely monitor the weather situation, proactively plan for disaster prevention and effectively implement policies on social security, labor and employment.
The growth target of 6-6.5% is a big challenge in the context of the international situation with many potential risks
In addition to the international context, the Covid-19 epidemic and new variants always have the potential to infect faster than the old variant. Recently, WHO warned about the new strain XE, which recombined from two sublines BA.1 and BA.2 of Omicron, capable of spreading faster than Omicron.
If the first quarter of 2022 is relatively prosperous, reflecting the current state of the economy recovering and the efforts of the whole political system, the next quarters still remains many challenges and difficulties but also promising new and stronger growing opportunities.
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