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Vietnam Real Estate Market 2026: Q2 Outlook, Analysis & Forecast
Table of contents
The Vietnam real estate market 2026 is taking clearer shape after the first half of the year: a favourable macro backdrop, surging foreign investment and a wave of large-scale infrastructure all under way at once. Drawing on CBRE’s Vietnam Real Estate Market Insights, Q2 2026 and data from the General Statistics Office, Realtique summarises and analyses the most important shifts — from macroeconomics and infrastructure to supply, pricing and the outlook to 2028.
This in-depth piece compares the two biggest markets, Hanoi and HCMC (post-merger), explains why HCMC’s condo supply has concentrated in the former Binh Duong, and draws out the practical implications for both owner-occupiers and investors.
📌 Q3 2026 update: Vietnam’s typical asking price fell for a third straight quarter to VND 86 million/m², HCMC apartments held almost flat at VND 69 million/m² and buyers are shifting to new launches. Read the new analysis: Ho Chi Minh City property market Q3 2026. CBRE’s Q3 numbers (new launches -50%, units sold -71%, HCMC primary price VND 75 million/m²): Ho Chi Minh City condo prices Q3 2026.
The Macroeconomic Picture: Foundation for Recovery
In the first half of 2026 Vietnam kept growing strongly, with GDP around 7.63%–8.18% year-on-year — a crucial foundation for housing demand. The standout is registered FDI up 61% year-on-year, led by Singapore (36%), Korea (26%) and Japan, with billion-dollar projects such as the Samsung chip-packaging plant (USD 4B, Thai Nguyen) and an AI data centre in HCMC.
Tourism rebounded with six straight months above 2 million international arrivals (about 12.4 million in H1); retail and services grew nearly 12.9%. On the other side, 12-month deposit rates edged up to around 6.0% and CPI to about 4.69% — pushing up mortgage costs and weighing on absorption, as discussed below.
Infrastructure — Reshaping Housing Demand
The 2026–2031 public capital plan reaches VND 8.22 quadrillion, 2.7x the previous period, turning 2026 into a giant construction site. This is the single most important variable reshaping the housing price map: connectivity shifts demand and land value toward the ring-road corridors and outer areas.
In HCMC, five TOD zones along Metro Line 2 (940 ha), the Ring Road 3 system, Long Thanh Airport and especially the HCMC master plan toward 2050 are creating new growth poles. Can Gio International Port (571 ha, 16.9M TEUs) is a long-term catalyst for the South — home to mega-projects such as Vinhomes Green Paradise Can Gio.
Condo Supply: Hanoi Leads, HCMC Shifts to Former Binh Duong
In H1 2026 Hanoi kept leading condo supply with 16,633 units launched (up 26% year-on-year), mostly from mega-townships in the east. HCMC (post-merger) recorded 10,761 units, but with an unusual mix: only 13% came from the former HCMC, while 79% came from the former Binh Duong.
This shift reflects the move toward the urban fringe: inner-city land is scarce and expensive, while the former Binh Duong offers ample land, reasonable entry prices and improving connectivity. It is the essential context for reading the price trends below.
Notable New Launches in Q2 2026
Q2 2026 saw a wave of major launches, heavily concentrated in the former Binh Duong with international developers and partners on board:
| Project | Developer | Location | Units | Primary price (VND M/sqm) | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midori Park (The Nest) | Becamex Tokyu | Binh Duong (former Thu Dau Mot) | 972 | 49 – 51 | May–Jun 2026 |
| Orchard Collection | CapitaLand | Binh Duong (former Thu Dau Mot) | ~800 | 76 | Jun 2026 |
| MonRei Saigon | Mitsubishi | Thuan Giao (Binh Duong) | ~1,800 | 54 | Jun 2026 |
| Masteri Cosmo Central | Masterise | Binh Trung (former Thu Duc, HCMC) | 500 | 150 | May 2026 |
What the supply leaders share is a reputable developer and a self-contained, fully amenitised product. The same pattern is visible in eastern mega-townships such as Palm City next to Thu Thiem, where infrastructure and disciplined master planning become the key drivers of long-term value.
Primary Prices and Absorption
The market-wide primary price across expanded HCMC reached about VND 76 million/sqm in Q2 2026, up from VND 67 million in Q3 2025. An interesting twist: rising prices in the former Binh Duong lifted the overall average and narrowed the gap with the former inner city (around VND 91–92 million/sqm).
Absorption, however, is softening in both cities. The drivers are higher mortgage rates (around 9.2%) plus a robust future pipeline that gives buyers more choice and more caution. International buyers weighing an entry should also review our step-by-step property buying guide for Vietnam.
26 August Update: Why “HCMC Apartment Prices Fell 17.4%” Is a Misreading
On 25 August 2026, at the Real Estate Forum 2026 (“Mega-city — Mega-opportunity”, hosted by TheLEADER), CBRE Vietnam managing director Duong Thuy Dung put the post-merger Ho Chi Minh City apartment market at roughly VND 76.1 million per sqm on the primary market and about VND 62 million per sqm on the secondary market. Around 80% of new apartment supply in the first half of 2026 came from the former Binh Duong area.
Vietnamese media promptly ran the line “HCMC apartment prices fell VND 16 million per sqm, or 17.4%” — arrived at by subtracting 76 from 92. That subtraction compares two different baskets. The VND 92 million figure describes the old inner city; the VND 76.1 million figure is the average across the enlarged city, which now folds in Binh Duong and Ba Ria – Vung Tau supply. Widen the basket toward cheaper areas and the average falls. Nothing actually got cheaper.
Read it against the figures in the section above and the direction reverses: the post-merger average of about VND 76 million per sqm is up from VND 67 million in Q3 2025, not down from 92. The same number supports “prices rose 13%” or “prices fell 17.4%” depending on which baseline the writer picks.
What each number is actually good for:
- VND 76.1m/sqm — primary average, whole enlarged city. Useful for tracking the market quarter to quarter. Useless for pricing a specific unit.
- VND 62m/sqm — secondary average. Closer to realised resale pricing, but still an average across the entire new administrative area.
- VND 91–92m/sqm — the old inner city. This is the relevant benchmark if you are looking at District 1, Thu Thiem, Thao Dien or District 4. Branded residences sit far above even this — see our 2026 branded residences analysis.
For foreign buyers and overseas Vietnamese this distinction matters more than for anyone else. The supply pulling the average down sits mostly on the urban fringe, while this group tends to shop in the centre, along the river, or in projects that still have foreign-ownership room left. A citywide average says almost nothing about what those units cost. When you assess a price, ask for figures by district and by project, with a date attached — never the market average.
Source: CBRE Vietnam, presented at the Real Estate Forum 2026 (TheLEADER), 25 August 2026; compiled from Dan Tri and Sai Gon Giai Phong.
Graphic: Realtique · Data: CBRE Vietnam, Real Estate Forum 2026, 25 Aug 2026. These four figures are not directly comparable — each covers a different basket.
Market Outlook 2026–2028
CBRE forecasts that housing supply in both Hanoi and HCMC will stay strong through 2028, supporting more moderate and sustainable price growth rather than sharp spikes. Hanoi condo primary prices are heading toward ~VND 78M/sqm and HCMC ~VND 68M/sqm; HCMC landed property could reach around VND 209M/sqm of land.
Three key themes are expected: (1) outer-ring urban areas reshape housing demand; (2) prices maintain an upward trend on better product quality and buyer confidence; (3) infrastructure connectivity reinforces long-term demand from both owner-occupiers and investors.
18 September Update: CBRE Adds — Primary Prices Up 14% a Year Since 2021, ~11% a Year Forecast to 2028
18 September 2026 update: at CBRE Vietnam’s seminar “Real estate in transition: from short-term potential to real value” (held during Nam Long Experience 2026 at SECC), Duong Thuy Dung, Head of Research & Consulting, added a set of figures that sharpen the outlook above (Bao Xay Dung, 18 Sep; Tuoi Tre, 19 Sep):
- Looking back, 2021–2026: HCMC primary apartment prices rose about 14% a year on average; secondary prices about 12% a year.
- Forecast 2026–2028: primary ~11% a year, secondary 5–6% a year — slower than the past five years, with the gap between new launches and resales widening. This is CBRE’s forecast, not a guarantee.
- Supply mix, Q2 2026 (new HCMC boundary): old HCMC 73% · former Binh Duong 19% · Dong Nai 5% · Long An 4%. Old HCMC’s share of new launches has fallen from 60–85% before 2024 to 20–50% in some recent quarters.
- What buyers say (Batdongsan.com.vn survey, Q2 2026): 69% would move out of the centre to the suburbs, 27% still prioritise the centre, 72% pick areas with new infrastructure; buyers consider 5–7% a year a fair mortgage rate while actual rates run 8–12% (see our interest-rate guide).
How to read this: 14% and 11% measure the same thing — average primary prices — but on different baskets. The 2026–2028 basket carries far more Binh Duong, Dong Nai and Long An supply, so part of the “slowdown” is the basket effect explained in the 26 August section, not necessarily slower growth per project. A secondary forecast of only 5–6% a year means buying primary to flip within a year or two gets harder to make work after taxes and fees; the odds favour owner-occupiers and long-term holders — including foreign buyers on 50-year terms who are not counting on a quick resale.
12 October 2026 Update: Q3 — Former-HCMC Primary Prices Hit USD 4,210/sqm, While the Wider Market Corrects
Update, 12 October 2026: the first Q3 2026 numbers are out, and they show two markets running side by side — new-launch condos in the core keep getting more expensive, while overall liquidity (especially land plots) stays weak.
Primary condos: prices still rising, sales recovering
Per Knight Frank Vietnam’s Q3 2026 report (as reported by VnExpress, 8 Oct 2026, CafeF, 8 Oct 2026):
- Former HCMC (pre-merger boundary): average primary price USD 4,210/sqm (about VND 110 million/sqm), +3% quarter-on-quarter and +12% year-on-year. New launches 2,711 units (+29% q/q, +48% y/y); sales 2,493 units (+40% q/q), an absorption rate of about 38%.
- Wider region (incl. former Binh Duong and Ba Ria – Vung Tau): primary price USD 3,754/sqm (about VND 97.6 million/sqm), +2.3% q/q; 7,203 units launched; about 7,540 units sold (reports give 7,534 and 7,544), 45% absorption — sales can exceed the quarter’s launches because they include unsold stock from earlier phases.
- Pipeline: about 42,593 more units expected in HCMC by end-2027, over half in the core, still skewed to high-end and luxury.
Reading the USD 4,210 figure correctly: CafeF, citing Knight Frank, notes the 3% rise came mainly from luxury and ultra-luxury launches during the quarter, not a uniform price rise — partly a basket effect, the same mechanism explained in our 26 August update above. It is also not directly comparable with CBRE’s ~VND 76 million/sqm for Q2: different research house, different quarter, and a different geography (former HCMC vs the merged city).
The wider market: a correction phase
On the other side, broker MBS Securities (via CafeF, 11 Oct 2026) says the market has entered a correction phase after the 2024–2025 run-up, driven by interest-rate pressure:
- H1 2026: 239,860 property transactions nationwide, −18% y/y; apartments and houses 26,567 (−23%); land plots 73,438 (−40%), the steepest drop.
- 12-month deposit rates up about 0.3 percentage points q/q to roughly 7.5–9%; Hanoi secondary condo prices down about 10–20% depending on location.
- First nine months of 2026: more than 2,800 property companies dissolved, about 2.2x the same period last year (1,260) — also reported by VnExpress (+123%).
At an 8 October panel hosted by the Vietnam and HCMC real-estate clubs (VnExpress, 9 Oct 2026), one developer executive forecast mortgage rates of 10–15% a year — a personal view, not an official forecast, but consistent with our interest-rate analysis.
What it means for foreign and overseas buyers
The two signals are consistent: with borrowing expensive, money leaves speculative segments (land plots, suburban resale) and concentrates in new-launch condos from reputable developers in central locations — the same segment foreign buyers can access (condos in commercial projects on the approved list), usually paying with their own funds. For owner-occupiers and long-term landlords, core primary prices are unlikely to fall soon (new supply remains luxury-heavy); any negotiating room is more likely in the resale market and in extended payment schedules than in list prices. This is Realtique’s reading of published data, not investment advice.
Note: Knight Frank figures are cited via press reports; CBRE’s full Q3 2026 report had not been released at the time of this update. The 42,593-unit pipeline is a plan and may shift with each project’s approvals.
Graphic: Realtique · Data: Knight Frank Vietnam, Q3 2026 (via VnExpress, CafeF, 8 Oct 2026). “Wider region” includes former Binh Duong and Ba Ria – Vung Tau; units sold include earlier unsold stock.
Implications for Buyers and Investors
- Follow the infrastructure. Long-term value clusters where connectivity is clear — ring roads, metro lines, airports and seaports. This is the most important filter when choosing an area.
- Favour reputable developers and self-contained products. The 2026 supply leaders are all major brands with complete amenities — the trait that protects liquidity and value as the market differentiates.
- Use the softer absorption window. When demand is cautious and supply is ample, buyers gain negotiating leverage and more choice — well suited to owner-occupier and medium-to-long-term investment goals.
- Match the segment to your goals. The former Binh Duong fits moderate budgets; eastern HCMC suits premium riverfront living; the South benefits from Can Gio Port for long-horizon plays. Foreign buyers should confirm eligibility early — see our foreign buyer guide.
Overall, the 2026 market is not a story of overheating but a selective recovery — where infrastructure, legal clarity and developer reputation decide the winners.
Frequently Asked Questions
KC Pham
KC Pham is the CEO of Realtique, advising local and international clients on Vietnam’s most exclusive properties.
